Friday, September 25, 2026

Game Totals Pick

The visitors and playoff-chasers will give the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, who hasn’t been that much better than Mize in September with his 5.19 ERA. However, holding the Yankees to one run in 4.1 innings last week was encouraging, as is the fact that he has held the Padres to just 1 unearned run in his last two appearances (11.2 innings) against the club since the beginning of July.

The Guards aren’t the strongest against left-handers, but Jose Ramirez and David Fry have had success against Cameron, while Cleveland has been productive as a whole at the plate in high-pressure games over the last week. With Williams on the mound against an uninterested Royals lineup, I could only look to Cleveland here.

It's hard to find much to like with this Chargers offense at the moment, and Buffalo could settle into a more run-heavy game script once the Bills get an early lead. Regardless of which team covers this number, the under is my preferred look on the total.

Money Line Pick

Run Line Pick

Game Totals Pick

Jacob deGrom has been solid this season with a 3.86 ERA in 158.2 innings. No in-depth analysis is needed for this game other than the Rangers will be desperate treating this as a must win game.

The last time the Dodgers faced Yunior Marte, they put six runs up on the board through 4.2 innings. It also doesn't help that the Giants hold a 4.18 bullpen ERA, which will likely open the Dodgers up for more additional runs late in the game. While the Dodgers don't need to win this game, they want to give their starters plenty of playing time before having nearly a week off. Look for the Dodgers to come out swinging in this one.

Bryce Miller hasn't pitched six innings since July 2nd, so based on recent trends, it's unlikely he'll go deep in this game, especially since this game means nothing to either team. The Angels did steal one on the road last night, and Reid Detmers will look to put together one more quality start for the Angels before the season ends. With Seattle struggling against lefties, I'm not expecting their offense to do much early on.

The New York Yankees will start Brendan Beck who has pitched very well in AAA this season as a starter. Trevor Rogers is in decent form, but the Yankees are mashing lefties while Baltimore struggles against righties. Given offensive form and current pricing I side with New York in this game.

The New York Mets have yet to announce a starting pitcher but enter this game in horrible form against southpaw pitching. Andrew Alvarez is both a lefty and in good form, and I favor Washington given current information.

The biggest question for the Phillies heading into this matchup is how far will Cristopher Sanchez go in this matchup. If the Phillies fend off the Diamondbacks, Sanchez will likely be the starter on Tuesday or Wednesday night, so they'll want to be cautious with how many innings he throws. Either way, this is a must win for the Phillies, but since they'll be a little extra cautious with Sanchez, they'll go to the bullpen early, which holds a 4.35 ERA, opening the door for the Rays to capitalize

Point Spread Pick

Minnesota is 2-0 with a defense allowing 12.5 points per game and tied for the league lead with eight sacks. Tampa Bay has allowed seven sacks, committed five turnovers and failed to cover 11 straight games, so I'm laying the short number with the Vikings.

Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season, so Jameis Winston starts on a short week, possibly without LT Andrew Thomas and pass rusher Brian Burns. Tennessee nearly beat Philadelphia last week, and former Giants head coach Brian Daboll now runs its offence.

There are so many things wrong with this Chargers team on both sides of the ball, while Buffalo is healthy, in a groove offensively and coming off extra rest heading into its second consecutive home game. I'd need close to double digits to back Los Angeles here.

Point Spread Pick

Minnesota's defense has forced four takeaways, and the Vikings' offense has thrown for just 294 yards in two games. With Tampa Bay's drives stalling into field goals, I expect a low-scoring game.

Minnesota is 2-0 with a defense allowing 12.5 points per game and tied for the league lead with eight sacks. Tampa Bay has allowed seven sacks, committed five turnovers and failed to cover 11 straight games, so I'm laying the short number with the Vikings.

The Jaguars are the much healthier team heading into this game, and they're also playing better football at the moment. Look for Trevor Lawrence and this Jacksonville offense to spread the ball around and make it difficult for New England's struggling offense to keep up.

Tennessee is averaging 15 points per game, and New York didn't score a touchdown on Monday after Dart went down. With both Titans starting running backs banged up and Winston running a new game plan, this should be a field-position game.

Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season, so Jameis Winston starts on a short week, possibly without LT Andrew Thomas and pass rusher Brian Burns. Tennessee nearly beat Philadelphia last week, and former Giants head coach Brian Daboll now runs its offence.

It's hard to find much to like with this Chargers offense at the moment, and Buffalo could settle into a more run-heavy game script once the Bills get an early lead. Regardless of which team covers this number, the under is my preferred look on the total.

There are so many things wrong with this Chargers team on both sides of the ball, while Buffalo is healthy, in a groove offensively and coming off extra rest heading into its second consecutive home game. I'd need close to double digits to back Los Angeles here.

There are probably tons of trends that point to the Steelers as home ‘dogs in this spot, but all that data would have been from Mike Tomlin’s tenure. He’s now in the studio with NBC, so that historical data is about as relevant as the head-to-head metrics from when Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger were playing. As such, I have a hard time picking against Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense, paired with what appears to be a much-improved Bengals defense.

Watson looked passable last week, but it’s hard to find much confidence in that being a real thing considering what he has consistently put on tape the last few years. Meanwhile, Bryce Young has started to blossom under Dave Canales, and with Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillian, Jalen Coker and now Darren Waller at his disposal, he has all he needs to take advantage of a Cleveland defense that is 28th in success rate and 24th in EPA per play thus far.

It’s clear who is the better team in this matchup, but Kansas City is playing its first daytime game of the season following two primetime games and going on the road where it has struggled. KC should win, but Miami can at least keep this somewhat respectable.

Detroit's Jackson Jobe owns a 5.02 ERA to go along with a .281 BAA in three home starts, and the Pirates have been among the highest-scoring teams in baseball all season long. Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler has seen his K/BB ratio drop from 7.8 last season to 1.8 this season.

Seattle starting pitcher Bryan Woo owns a stellar 1.42 ERA through four starts and 25.1 innings of work in September. The Mariners are 4-0 in those games, and have won three by multiple runs. The Angels have lost 11 of Grayson Rodriguez's last 12 starts, and things won't get any easier going up against Woo tonight in Seattle.

New England should be looking to keep the ball on the ground and keep its defense off the field, while the Jaguars offense can be expected to be a bit more deliberate in their approach against a lot of conservative two-high safety looks from the Patriots defense.

The Jaguars are the much healthier team heading into this game, and they're also playing better football at the moment. Look for Trevor Lawrence and this Jacksonville offense to spread the ball around and make it difficult for New England's struggling offense to keep up.

This is one of the smallest numbers of the week, thus creating value on backing points. Drew Lock and Marcus Mariota are extremely capable backup quarterbacks and should be able to generate enough offense to send this total over.

Washington is 0-2 and quarterback Jayden Daniels once again suffered a dislocated elbow. Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion and rolling along nicely at 2-0. The Seahawks should have little issue winning this one by at least a touchdown.

The Falcons have scored just 16 points across their two games this season, and although Michael Penix Jr. is set to come in at quarterback, that is unlikely to cause enough of a shift to send Atlanta into a scoring frenzy. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but the offense has been lackluster so far, with QB Jordan Love ranking last in pass completion percentage (52.11%). Go low on TNF.

The Falcons have looked woeful through the first two weeks of the season, but the Packers haven't fared much better, and TNF could present a great buy-low opportunity on Atlanta. The Falcons' D ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and given the Packers failed to post 200 yards of offense against the Jets last week, there is reason to believe Atlanta can keep this one within a touchdown.

Tucker Kraft entered the 2026 season hobbled, recovering from a torn ACL injury, and we were told his snap count would be managed to start the season. In Week 1, Kraft played 66% of the snaps. However, that was followed up in Week 2 with 98% of snaps against the Jets. TEs have had success this season against the Falcons, allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points in two weeks. I'm banking on Kraft stepping up this week.

Nick Lodolo has a 5.04 ERA in 103.2 innings. The Reds are averaging 5.1 runs allowed per game, which is 3rd worst in the league.

Seven of the last eight international games have seen 50 points or fewer scored, and that trend should continue with this game in Brazil. Both teams looking vulnerable against the run. and if the offenses focus on their rushing attack, that should keep the clock ticking and lead to fewer possessions.

A total of 68 points were scored during the Week 18 finale between these two AFC South foes last season. Five of the last seven meetings between these two division rivals have produced at least 43 points.

The Falcons have looked woeful through the first two weeks of the season, but the Packers haven't fared much better, and TNF could present a great buy-low opportunity on Atlanta. The Falcons' D ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and given the Packers failed to post 200 yards of offense against the Jets last week, there is reason to believe Atlanta can keep this one within a touchdown.

With Barnett's struggles likely leading to plenty of scoring opportunities and both teams capable of adding on against the bullpens, this matchup projects to climb into double digits.

It could be said that nobody saw the Saints coming this season, and they surprised a lot of us. However, I believe the same can and should be said about the Raiders. The difference is, only one of them comes with a field goal's worth of points at home.

The Falcons have scored just 16 points across their two games this season, and although Michael Penix Jr. is set to come in at quarterback, that is unlikely to cause enough of a shift to send Atlanta into a scoring frenzy. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but the offense has been lackluster so far, with QB Jordan Love ranking last in pass completion percentage (52.11%). Go low on TNF.

The Falcons have looked woeful through the first two weeks of the season, but the Packers haven't fared much better, and TNF could present a great buy-low opportunity on Atlanta. The Falcons' D ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and given the Packers failed to post 200 yards of offense against the Jets last week, there is reason to believe Atlanta can keep this one within a touchdown.

Tucker Kraft entered the 2026 season hobbled, recovering from a torn ACL injury, and we were told his snap count would be managed to start the season. In Week 1, Kraft played 66% of the snaps. However, that was followed up in Week 2 with 98% of snaps against the Jets. TEs have had success this season against the Falcons, allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points in two weeks. I'm banking on Kraft stepping up this week.

With Barnett's struggles likely leading to plenty of scoring opportunities and both teams capable of adding on against the bullpens, this matchup projects to climb into double digits.

At odds hovering around +150, the price, in combination with the contrasting form of the pitchers and the differing playoff scenarios, make me very interested in the Padres.

With Barnett's struggles likely leading to plenty of scoring opportunities and both teams capable of adding on against the bullpens, this matchup projects to climb into double digits.

Neither team should throw their starter deep into this game. The Yankees will want Schlittler rested and sharp early next week, and Ian Seymour rarely works deep into games anyway. We should see a lot of relievers here, so I'll take the over on this unusually low game total.

Suarez is in fine form, but I question how long he will throw for with an imminent playoff appearance on deck. Boston seems to be cruising in neutral as a whole, as this offense has tallied more than one run just once in its last four games and hasn’t plated more than four runs since September 12.