Monday, September 14, 2026

Whenever a total climbs and we see inflation like this, we look for reasons for why it might regress. In this case, the evidence supports another high-scoring affair. The Bills' offense looks as hot as ever, while the Lions will need to keep scoring to have any chance here. Expect fireworks on TNF.

This is a short week for both programs, but the Bills return home with renewed confidence in their new regime and an offense that looks as explosive as it ever has. The Lions’ defense will be in a very vulnerable spot on the road after barely surviving against the Saints. All Bills for me.

This rivalry has a very obvious theme: low-scoring. The last six regular-season battles between these two franchises have resulted in an average of 33.6 points per game. Not one of those matchups eclipsed this total. Expect that trend to continue here.

Arizona is in a good position to manage the game effectively. If Alcantara's recent struggles continue and the Diamondbacks capitalize early, they should have enough offense and pitching depth to secure another home victory. Moneyline - Arizona Diamondbacks

Kade Anderson is coming off his best start as a pro against a tough Texas lineup and now draws a far softer Angels unit. Reid Detmers is in elite form in his own right, and I expect a low scoring game in this matchup. Under 7.5

Opponents have scored at least six runs in four of Sugano’s last five starts, and the Rockies have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in the league. Meanwhile, the Padres have scored at least six runs in four straight. San Diego Padres Over 5.5

With Mathews trending in the right direction, the Cardinals playing at home, and the Giants facing a difficult travel spot after Sunday Night Baseball, St. Louis has the edge. Expect the Cardinals to capitalize on the scheduling advantage and begin the series with a victory. Moneyline - St. Louis Cardinals

Reynaldo Lopez is making only his second start since returning from a month-long IL stint, and the first start went poorly. The Cubs have the best offense in the league. David Peterson has been a mixed bag since joining the Cubs, but the Braves had had minimal success against him over the years. Moneyline - Chicago Cubs

The Yankees are the better team in this matchup, and even though Will Warren has struggled at times this season, he's been pitching well in recent starts. The Yankees have plenty of arms available in the bullpen and should be able to score early on against Kremer in tonight's game. Moneyline - New York Yankees

Walks are usually a concern with Young; he’s issued multiple in seven of his last nine starts. They are a concern with Tong too – he has issued eight in 15 innings of work. Over 8

The Tigers have won 4 games in a row, and now they get to hand the ball to Troy Melton. He's been their ace since Tarik Skubal was traded to Los Angeles, and owns a stellar 2.06 ERA and .188 BAA on the road this season. Moneyline - Detroit Tigers

Skubal is elite at suppressing runs, but I still think this total is a half-run too low. These lineups just saw these pitchers last week, while they are both top-10 in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties this year. Over 7.5

Whenever a total climbs and we see inflation like this, we look for reasons for why it might regress. In this case, the evidence supports another high-scoring affair. The Bills' offense looks as hot as ever, while the Lions will need to keep scoring to have any chance here. Expect fireworks on TNF.

This is a short week for both programs, but the Bills return home with renewed confidence in their new regime and an offense that looks as explosive as it ever has. The Lions’ defense will be in a very vulnerable spot on the road after barely surviving against the Saints. All Bills for me.

Bo Nix has a new shiny toy to throw the ball to. Jaylen Waddle joins a Broncos offense that ranked 14th in points per game and lacked a partner to Courtland Sutton. Now in year six, Waddle is looking to make some noise for a championship contender that won 14 games last season.

Engram saw 4+ targets in 12 of 16 games last season, and when he did reach that 4+ target market, he cleared this number in 10 of 12 games.

This rivalry has a very obvious theme: low-scoring. The last six regular-season battles between these two franchises have resulted in an average of 33.6 points per game. Not one of those matchups eclipsed this total. Expect that trend to continue here.

The advantage for the Chiefs is that they’re at home and, of course, they have one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, like ever. Every other advantage is on Denver’s side, so we must take the value here.

Walks are usually a concern with Young; he’s issued multiple in seven of his last nine starts. They are a concern with Tong too – he has issued eight in 15 innings of work.

Skubal is elite at suppressing runs, but I still think this total is a half-run too low. These lineups just saw these pitchers last week, while they are both top-10 in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties this year.

Money Line

Money Line

Money Line

The advantage for the Chiefs is that they’re at home and, of course, they have one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, like ever. Every other advantage is on Denver’s side, so we must take the value here.

Arizona is in a good position to manage the game effectively. If Alcantara's recent struggles continue and the Diamondbacks capitalize early, they should have enough offense and pitching depth to secure another home victory.

With Mathews trending in the right direction, the Cardinals playing at home, and the Giants facing a difficult travel spot after Sunday Night Baseball, St. Louis has the edge. Expect the Cardinals to capitalize on the scheduling advantage and begin the series with a victory.

Kade Anderson is coming off his best start as a pro against a tough Texas lineup and now draws a far softer Angels unit. Reid Detmers is in elite form in his own right, and I expect a low scoring game in this matchup.

Reynaldo Lopez is making only his second start since returning from a month-long IL stint, and the first start went poorly. The Cubs have the best offense in the league. David Peterson has been a mixed bag since joining the Cubs, but the Braves had had minimal success against him over the years.

Walks are usually a concern with Young; he’s issued multiple in seven of his last nine starts. They are a concern with Tong too – he has issued eight in 15 innings of work.

Skubal is elite at suppressing runs, but I still think this total is a half-run too low. These lineups just saw these pitchers last week, while they are both top-10 in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties this year.

Kade Anderson is coming off his best start as a pro against a tough Texas lineup and now draws a far softer Angels unit. Reid Detmers is in elite form in his own right, and I expect a low scoring game in this matchup.

Opponents have scored at least six runs in four of Sugano’s last five starts, and the Rockies have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in the league. Meanwhile, the Padres have scored at least six runs in four straight.

The Yankees are the better team in this matchup, and even though Will Warren has struggled at times this season, he's been pitching well in recent starts. The Yankees have plenty of arms available in the bullpen and should be able to score early on against Kremer in tonight's game.

Walks are usually a concern with Young; he’s issued multiple in seven of his last nine starts. They are a concern with Tong too – he has issued eight in 15 innings of work.

Skubal is elite at suppressing runs, but I still think this total is a half-run too low. These lineups just saw these pitchers last week, while they are both top-10 in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties this year.

Heading into this series, the Guardians have been the hotter team, and it's concerning that the White Sox will need to kick things off with their bullpen. The AL Central is on the line, and with the advantage on the mound and at the plate, the Guardians will look to take advantage of tonight's mismatch.

Kade Anderson is coming off his best start as a pro against a tough Texas lineup and now draws a far softer Angels unit. Reid Detmers is in elite form in his own right, and I expect a low scoring game in this matchup.

Skubal is elite at suppressing runs, but I still think this total is a half-run too low. These lineups just saw these pitchers last week, while they are both top-10 in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties this year.

The advantage for the Chiefs is that they’re at home and, of course, they have one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, like ever. Every other advantage is on Denver’s side, so we must take the value here.

Engram saw 4+ targets in 12 of 16 games last season, and when he did reach that 4+ target market, he cleared this number in 10 of 12 games.

Bo Nix has a new shiny toy to throw the ball to. Jaylen Waddle joins a Broncos offense that ranked 14th in points per game and lacked a partner to Courtland Sutton. Now in year six, Waddle is looking to make some noise for a championship contender that won 14 games last season.

This rivalry has a very obvious theme: low-scoring. The last six regular-season battles between these two franchises have resulted in an average of 33.6 points per game. Not one of those matchups eclipsed this total. Expect that trend to continue here.

The advantage for the Chiefs is that they’re at home and, of course, they have one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, like ever. Every other advantage is on Denver’s side, so we must take the value here.

The Tigers have won 4 games in a row, and now they get to hand the ball to Troy Melton. He's been their ace since Tarik Skubal was traded to Los Angeles, and owns a stellar 2.06 ERA and .188 BAA on the road this season.

Dak and company will put up points on the Giants. Since that’s the most predictable outcome of any matchup, I like that to stimulate more offense from a fired-up, new-look Giants outfit, too.

The most improved unit is probably the Cowboys’ defense, and that’s where this game will be won. I think both the Giants and Cowboys will look more buttoned up than they did a year ago, but in the end, the visitors' offense is at a different level than what a young New York squad can offer.

Dak and company will put up points on the Giants. Since that’s the most predictable outcome of any matchup, I like that to stimulate more offense from a fired-up, new-look Giants outfit, too.

Dak and company will put up points on the Giants. Since that’s the most predictable outcome of any matchup, I like that to stimulate more offense from a fired-up, new-look Giants outfit, too.

The most improved unit is probably the Cowboys’ defense, and that’s where this game will be won. I think both the Giants and Cowboys will look more buttoned up than they did a year ago, but in the end, the visitors' offense is at a different level than what a young New York squad can offer.