Friday, September 11, 2026

This rivalry has a very obvious theme: low-scoring. The last six regular-season battles between these two franchises have resulted in an average of 33.6 points per game. Not one of those matchups eclipsed this total. Expect that trend to continue here.

The advantage for the Chiefs is that they’re at home and, of course, they have one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, like ever. Every other advantage is on Denver’s side, so we must take the value here.

Dak and company will put up points on the Giants. Since that’s the most predictable outcome of any matchup, I like that to stimulate more offense from a fired-up, new-look Giants outfit, too.

The most improved unit is probably the Cowboys’ defense, and that’s where this game will be won. I think both the Giants and Cowboys will look more buttoned up than they did a year ago, but in the end, the visitors' offense is at a different level than what a young New York squad can offer.

The total went under in eight of the Eagles' last 10 games last season, while in Jayden Daniels' seven starts for the Commanders, the under cashed five times. With AJ Brown gone from Philadelphia and both teams having concerns on offense, the Under looks the right way to play this one.

The Eagles pummeled the Commanders in the 2025 NFC Championship Game, and Washington regressed massively last season. They won only two of Jayden Daniels' seven starts. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 5-0 in Week 1 under Nick Sirianni, and should pick up the victory once again here.

Jim Harbaugh now has help with his offense in coach Mike McDaniel. Justin Herbert is back and his injuries are a thing of the past. His offensive line is mostly healthy with a sound new addition at center, Jake Slaughter. Omarion Hampton, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey are solid and will be ready to start Sunday. They will likely be more than the Cardinals can handle.

Both the Cardinals and Chargers have big names and lots of talent at the ball-catcher position. McConkey, Wilson and McBride to name a few. Jacoby Brissett did well enough last year to earn a starting position this season and Justin Herbert’s reputation stands on its own. The Cardinals’ woes at defense will likely continue. Put this all together, and Sunday's game should be full of action.

I'm not expecting a total shootout, but I do think this has blowout potential, and that should favor the over. Given Vegas' offensive talent and the weakness on Miami's defense, I'm predicting a score in the region of 31-13 to the Raiders.

This game will go a long way to determining just how good (or bad) each of these franchises will be this season. I see a much greater chance of the Raiders having an upside in 2026, and if that is to happen, it needs to start with a home victory over the hapless Dolphins.

Eight of Minnesota's last nine games of the 2025 season went Under, and I expect that trend to continue here. I don’t expect the Vikings to light it up with Kyler Murray under center, but their defense should still be strong against the Packers.

The Vikings won their last five games of the 2025 season to finish 9-8, and capped it off by beating the Packers. Green Bay meanwhile lost four straight and was then ousted by the Bears in the playoffs. Packers RB Josh Jacobs is unavailable due to level issues, and the Vikings should be able to take advantage.

I’d be surprised if there were plenty of points scored in this game, so let’s look at fewer than six touchdowns scored and stay under the total.

The Falcons probably have the three best offensive weapons on the field with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, and given that the Steelers have a new head coach and there are questions over Aaron Rodgers' focus, I'll take Atlanta to at least stay within a field goal.

Both teams allowed at least 327 yards per game, as Chicago sat 29th in this category at 361.8 yards given up per contest. Carolina’s offense wasn’t great last season, but the Panthers can exploit this Chicago defense and get points at home. Weather won’t be a factor with temperatures in the high 80s, so go Over with this one.

Bears QB Caleb Williams threw a league-low seven interceptions in the regular season, but was picked off five times in the two playoff games. Chicago was the hunter last season in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, but the Bears will be hunted after their division title. Let’s back the Panthers as a short home dog in the opener.

Dating back 2008, the under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. That trend should continue between two offenses that come in with some question marks.

To say that I don't have any faith in the Saints' offense would be an understatement. The Lions' offense is dangerous, but it struggled down the stretch in 2025. A total of 50.5 is just too big.

The Saints have not reached the playoffs since 2020 and Kellen Moore remains an unproven head coach as he enters year two. The difference in offensive firepower between these two teams is striking.

There’s undeniable talent on both offenses, but with the defensive improvements of both Tampa and Cincinnati, this game may turn out to be more cagey than the odds depict. Considering the total is 50.5, a 27-23 or 27-21 type game cashes the under for us, which is exactly the range in which I put this game.

Cincinnati made improvements in the offseason, bolstering a defense that was largely inept in recent years, finishing 30th in scoring and 31st in yards per game allowed a season ago. This unit as a whole definitely passed the eye test in the preseason, flying around and making plays while holding opponents to 14 points or less in each of their three wins. Even if the starters didn’t play a ton, it’s progress that’s certainly noteworthy ahead of this campaign.

The Jags want to play with aggressive tempo this season, and they’re primed for a big year, as they have weapons everywhere with a dynamic quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who could propel the offense to 30+ points any given week. The issue is, we cannot trust Deshaun Watson to consistently lead the Browns offense up and down the field to contribute to scoring.

At the end of the day, the Jaguars are a bona fide playoff team playing at home against a struggling Browns organization that is working in a new and first-time NFL head coach with Watson under center, while their best and most exciting player is no longer on the team.

Point Spread Pick

Game Totals Pick

To say that I don't have any faith in the Saints' offense would be an understatement. The Lions' offense is dangerous, but it struggled down the stretch in 2025. A total of 50.5 is just too big.

The NFL plays its first-ever game in Australia, and the 49ers should at the very least be able to keep things close against the Super Bowl favorite Rams. San Francisco tends to have LA's number even when the odds are stacked against them, and their talent on offense should see the 49ers push the Rams all the way.

Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald may take some time to gel before wreaking havoc on offenses, and given the 49ers' documented struggles on defense last season, we should see the total go Over in the land Down Under.

Hagen Smith has had a strong start to his career as a reliever, and the White Sox will give him a start Thursday as they continue to stretch out his workload. Jared Jones was elite in his last outing against the Angels and should find some success once again in the strikeout department.

The Yanks are 7-3 in their last 10, and they scored at least six runs in five of those victories, with five runs scored in the other two. Meanwhile, Feltner’s opponents have plated at least six runs in three of his last four starts and seven of his last 10.

Point Spread Pick

Game Totals Pick

Hagen Smith has had a strong start to his career as a reliever, and the White Sox will give him a start Thursday as they continue to stretch out his workload. Jared Jones was elite in his last outing against the Angels and should find some success once again in the strikeout department.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Upcoming match with no specific pick or odds provided.

Hagen Smith has had a strong start to his career as a reliever, and the White Sox will give him a start Thursday as they continue to stretch out his workload. Jared Jones was elite in his last outing against the Angels and should find some success once again in the strikeout department.

The Yanks are 7-3 in their last 10, and they scored at least six runs in five of those victories, with five runs scored in the other two. Meanwhile, Feltner’s opponents have plated at least six runs in three of his last four starts and seven of his last 10.