Monday, August 31, 2026

Game Totals Pick Over

If deGrom delivers another quality start, the Rangers are well positioned to build an early lead and keep the Athletics from mounting much of a comeback. With the clear edge on the mound, the stronger lineup, and home field advantage, Texas has all the ingredients to win by multiple runs and continue building momentum.

I’m expecting this game to have playoff intensity Monday in Arizona. With both pitchers in solid form, let’s look for a low-scoring affair.

The Rockies will turn to Tanner Gordon, who carries a 5.38 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He just pitched a seven-inning gem at Washington last week, but he’s been a disaster at home in the altitude, carrying a 7.89 ERA while allowing 38 earned runs on 60 hits and 14 homers in 43.1 innings.

The Rays are the best team in the AL, and they lead the Yankees by 4.5 games. They have the motivation to keep winning, and that matters in the final month of the season. Ian Seymour is a dependable starter, and Robert Stock is not--he has been blown up in 2 of his 5 MLB starts for the Mets. Take the better team here.

The Yankees scored 25 runs in their last two games against the Red Sox. Urena has some nasty stuff but has trouble commanding the strike zone at times which can lead to walking a lot of batters and racking up his pitch count.

The Miami Marlins may not have the best offense, but they should be able to do enough offensively against a tired Nationals bullpen. Gusto has been terrific in his last two starts and I expect him to deliver another strong performance to put his team in a spot to pick up a win on the road.

Clay Holmes is a ground ball artist which should benefit him with today's friendly hitting conditions in Wrigley. Kyle Harrison is also in good form but draws the best lineup against lefties in the month of August. I side with Chicago at current pricing.

The Red Sox have a significant edge on the mound with Payton Tolle as Seattle continues to struggle against left-handed pitching. While both offenses are producing at the same clip, I like Boston to get the job done against Kirby at home.

Michael King owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 3.4 WAR, while Brady Singer enters 5-12 with a 4.72 ERA, 5.17 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Singer's traffic problems are dangerous at Great American Ball Park. San Diego possesses the weapons to protect a lead and create separation. Play it that way.

Atlanta has frustrated run-line bettors with narrow victories in the last two games against the Rockies, but the underlying handicap remains attractive. The Braves are 82-55 and 48-23 at home, while San Francisco is 56-81 and 23-45 away. Rather than paying substantial moneyline juice against an inferior opponent, stick with the process and demand separation at plus money.

The Astros average 4.5 runs per game while the White Sox average 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th best in the MLB. These teams have met three times already this season, and two of the three games went over Monday’s projected game total.

Minnesota right-hander Taj Bradley is holding opposing hitters to a .206 batting average at home this season. He is set to face a Detroit lineup that is in a rut, as they've scored just 4 total runs over their last 4 games.