Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Colorado's Ryan Feltner posted a 9.68 ERA in July, and has allowed seven earned runs through 11.1 innings to start the month of August. On the other side, Arizona's Merrill Kelly is in the midst of the worst season of his career in just about every major metric out there.

The Rays have won all eight games on the current West Coast road trip, while going 11-1 in the past 12 games away from home. They turn to RHP Drew Rasmussen (11-5, 2.75 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), while the A's go with RHP Jack Perkins (2-8, 7.04 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). The pitching disparity is so outrageous, go with the favorite on the run line and feel confident in doing so.

Colorado's Ryan Feltner posted a 9.68 ERA in July, and has allowed seven earned runs through 11.1 innings to start the month of August. On the other side, Arizona's Merrill Kelly is in the midst of the worst season of his career in just about every major metric out there.

Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia an enormous foundation on the mound, while Kyle Leahy's 3.45 ERA is undermined by an alarming 5.22 xERA. If regression arrives against Philadelphia's dangerous lineup, the Phillies can establish separation while Wheeler suppresses St. Louis.

The Rays have won all eight games on the current West Coast road trip, while going 11-1 in the past 12 games away from home. They turn to RHP Drew Rasmussen (11-5, 2.75 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), while the A's go with RHP Jack Perkins (2-8, 7.04 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). The pitching disparity is so outrageous, go with the favorite on the run line and feel confident in doing so.

Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia an enormous foundation on the mound, while Kyle Leahy's 3.45 ERA is undermined by an alarming 5.22 xERA. If regression arrives against Philadelphia's dangerous lineup, the Phillies can establish separation while Wheeler suppresses St. Louis.

Both offenses have clear pathways toward runs. Minnesota gets Shane Baz and eventually Baltimore's mediocre bullpen, while the Orioles draw Zebby Matthews and his 5.23 ERA before encountering a Twins relief corps notorious for bleeding runs. With questionable pitching on both sides and legitimate offensive upside, this matchup screams Over.

Both offenses have clear pathways toward runs. Minnesota gets Shane Baz and eventually Baltimore's mediocre bullpen, while the Orioles draw Zebby Matthews and his 5.23 ERA before encountering a Twins relief corps notorious for bleeding runs. With questionable pitching on both sides and legitimate offensive upside, this matchup screams Over.

Both offenses have clear pathways toward runs. Minnesota gets Shane Baz and eventually Baltimore's mediocre bullpen, while the Orioles draw Zebby Matthews and his 5.23 ERA before encountering a Twins relief corps notorious for bleeding runs. With questionable pitching on both sides and legitimate offensive upside, this matchup screams Over.

Colorado's Ryan Feltner posted a 9.68 ERA in July, and has allowed seven earned runs through 11.1 innings to start the month of August. On the other side, Arizona's Merrill Kelly is in the midst of the worst season of his career in just about every major metric out there.

The Under is 5-1 in the past six games for the Rangers. For the Angels, the Under has cashed in 10 of the past 11 games since July 31. The Angels have had a lot of difficulty scoring runs, going for just seven runs in the past four games, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG). They also have just 24 runs in the past 11 outings. Go low, and feel confident doing so.

Suarez has allowed three runs in four of his last five games, but the good news is that the Blue Jays have struggled against lefties all season. Soriano didn't pitch deep in his debut, and I think the Red Sox offense can get to Soriano early in this matchup as he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his career against Boston.

Carmen Mlodzinski's most recent outing did not go as planned for him as he gave up five earned runs in 3.0 innings. The Marlins have scored 21 runs in their last three games.

Framber Valdez has been very sharp across his last 2 starts, tossing 14 innings of 2-run ball. Foster Griffin has been far less impressive in his last 2 outings, allowing 11 combined earned runs in that span. Neither offense is crushing left-handed pitching of late, but I lean towards a Tigers win at home.

Dustin May has a 4.30 ERA in 115.0 innings this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. is swinging an extremely hot bat right now. He has four home runs in his last seven games.

Both offenses have clear pathways toward runs. Minnesota gets Shane Baz and eventually Baltimore's mediocre bullpen, while the Orioles draw Zebby Matthews and his 5.23 ERA before encountering a Twins relief corps notorious for bleeding runs. With questionable pitching on both sides and legitimate offensive upside, this matchup screams Over.

Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia an enormous foundation on the mound, while Kyle Leahy's 3.45 ERA is undermined by an alarming 5.22 xERA. If regression arrives against Philadelphia's dangerous lineup, the Phillies can establish separation while Wheeler suppresses St. Louis. Back Philadelphia to win comfortably by multiple runs.

Both offenses have clear pathways toward runs. Minnesota gets Shane Baz and eventually Baltimore's mediocre bullpen, while the Orioles draw Zebby Matthews and his 5.23 ERA before encountering a Twins relief corps notorious for bleeding runs. With questionable pitching on both sides and legitimate offensive upside, this matchup screams Over.

The Under is 5-1 in the past six games for the Rangers. For the Angels, the Under has cashed in 10 of the past 11 games since July 31. The Angels have had a lot of difficulty scoring runs, going for just seven runs in the past four games, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG). They also have just 24 runs in the past 11 outings. Go low, and feel confident doing so.

Many of the Dodgers batters have solid numbers against Michael Wacha, so I expect them to put a few runs on the board while he is in the game. Blake Snell has not pitched since May 9 and I suspect there will be some rust for him to shake off.

Nick Martinez has an 11-3 record with a 2.65 ERA in 129.0 innings. The Athletics give up the second-most runs in the MLB, averaging 5.7 runs allowed per game.

We have two starters who almost certainly won't work deep into the game, and both bullpens were heavily utilized in yesterday's extra-inning contest. Short starts and tired bullpens usually means a lot of runs.

Colorado's Ryan Feltner posted a 9.68 ERA in July, and has allowed 7 earned runs through 11.1 innings to start the month of August. On the other side, Arizona's Merrill Kelly is in the midst of the worst season of his career in just about every major metric out there.

Many of the Dodgers batters have solid numbers against Michael Wacha, so I expect them to put a few runs on the board while he is in the game. Blake Snell has not pitched since May 9 and I suspect there will be some rust for him to shake off.

Nick Martinez has an 11-3 record with a 2.65 ERA in 129.0 innings. The Athletics give up the second-most runs in the MLB, averaging 5.7 runs allowed per game.

We have two starters who almost certainly won't work deep into the game, and both bullpens were heavily utilized in yesterday's extra-inning contest. Short starts and tired bullpens usually means a lot of runs.

Nick Martinez has an 11-3 record with a 2.65 ERA in 129.0 innings. The Athletics give up the second-most runs in the MLB, averaging 5.7 runs allowed per game.

We have two starters who almost certainly won't work deep into the game, and both bullpens were heavily utilized in yesterday's extra-inning contest. Short starts and tired bullpens usually means a lot of runs.

Since the all-star break, Philadelphia's Cristopher Sanchez has allowed just seven total earned runs on 21 hits through four starts and 22.1 innings. St. Louis' Andre Pallante has also been impressive, allowing just six earned runs on 17 hits through his last 24.0 innings and four starts. With that in mind, this could be a low-scoring affair.

Brandon Young and Bailey Ober are both capable of quality starts, and they each draw favorable matchups against lineups ranking within the bottom 5 of wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. Expect 9 or fewer runs scored in this matchup.

Since the all-star break, Philadelphia's Cristopher Sanchez has allowed just seven total earned runs on 21 hits through four starts and 22.1 innings. St. Louis' Andre Pallante has also been impressive, allowing just six earned runs on 17 hits through his last 24.0 innings and four starts. With that in mind, this could be a low-scoring affair.

Brandon Young and Bailey Ober are both capable of quality starts, and they each draw favorable matchups against lineups ranking within the bottom 5 of wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. Expect 9 or fewer runs scored in this matchup.

The Cubs have a significant advantage in both categories in tonight's matchup and Imanaga isn't afraid to pitch on the road this season, posting a 3.24 ERA. The Cubs are feeling it right now and they should be able to handle a spiraling Nationals team.

Paul Skenes hasn't replicated his Cy Young numbers, entering 9-10 with a 3.96 ERA, but his dominant ceiling remains intact. Eury Pérez lacks the same strikeout upside and game-changing ability. If Pittsburgh generates early run support, Skenes can suppress Miami long enough for the Pirates to create separation and cash the run line.

Dylan Cease is the foundation of this handicap. Toronto's ace carries a stellar 2.28 ERA with elite strikeout ability, giving the Blue Jays the weapon necessary to neutralize Boston's offense. With Toronto desperately chasing a wild card and playing at home, expect maximum urgency.

The Cubs have a significant advantage in both categories in tonight's matchup and Imanaga isn't afraid to pitch on the road this season, posting a 3.24 ERA. The Cubs are feeling it right now and they should be able to handle a spiraling Nationals team.

Paul Skenes hasn't replicated his Cy Young numbers, entering 9-10 with a 3.96 ERA, but his dominant ceiling remains intact. Eury Pérez lacks the same strikeout upside and game-changing ability. If Pittsburgh generates early run support, Skenes can suppress Miami long enough for the Pirates to create separation and cash the run line.