Best Underdog Bets Today: Value Slate for October 4, 2026

The best underdog betting value on October 4, 2026, is concentrated in the NFL point spread market, highlighted by the New England Patriots +6.5 (+113) against the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets +3.5 (-118) facing the Chicago Bears. Both underdogs benefit from favorable situational spots and matchups where oddsmakers have overextended lines on home favorites. Grounded in systematic market analysis, these spots provide clear positive expected value (+EV) across Sunday's sports slate.

Key Takeaways

• New England Patriots +6.5 (+113): New England offers prime buy-low value against a Buffalo rushing offense ranking 1st in EPA/Rush, backed by a Patriots defense capable of capping explosive plays.
• New York Jets +3.5 (-118): Extra rest and strong offensive competitiveness give the Jets a distinct edge against a Chicago Bears squad in a letdown spot after Monday Night Football.
• Plus-Money Spread Spots: Green Bay Packers -3 (+117) and Houston Texans -3 (+125) offer strong plus-money value over vulnerable opponents.
• Verified Track Record: PlusMoneymakers holds a 30-day record of 162-134 (54.7% win rate) and +46.4 net units across all sports.

What are the best NFL underdog bets today?

Identifying value on underdogs requires pinpointing inflated lines caused by public perception. On October 4, 2026, two key NFL road underdogs stand out with significant value:

1. New England Patriots +6.5 (+113) at Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills enter this matchup ranking 1st in the NFL in EPA/Rush, which has driven public money toward Buffalo. However, the New England Patriots present a prime buy-low point spread opportunity at +6.5 (+113). Despite New England ranking 28th in EPA/Rush defense, the Patriots have already held two opponents to under 100 rushing yards this season.

Furthermore, game flow favors New England keeping this game close. The Patriots have scored 13 or fewer points in four of their past five contests, forcing their defense to play controlled, lower-variance football. Because New England excels at preventing explosive plays over the top, capping Buffalo's big-play potential keeps this rivalry game within a touchdown window.

2. New York Jets +3.5 (-118) at Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears enter Sunday coming off an emotional Monday night victory, putting them in a classic flat spot ahead of a major divisional showdown against the Packers next week. The market has inflated Chicago's line, creating value on the underdog.

New York brings an extra day of rest into Chicago and has shown high offensive competitiveness despite roster adjustments. Even without Breece Hall, the Jets maintain explosive backfield options and aggressive play-calling downfield. Grabbing +3.5 points gives bettors crucial protection past the key number of 3.

Where is the plus-money market value on October 4, 2026?

Underdog value isn't restricted purely to catching points on the point spread; it also exists in plus-money favorite prices where the market has underpriced a team's win probability.

`` +------------------------------------+--------------------------+---------------+--------------+ | Game Matchup | Selection | Odds | Market Type | +------------------------------------+--------------------------+---------------+--------------+ | New England Patriots @ Buffalo | Patriots +6.5 | +113 | Spread | | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Jets +3.5 | -118 | Spread | | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay | Packers -3 | +117 | Spread | | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Texans -3 | +125 | Spread | | Natália Silva vs. Wang Cong | Unanimous Decision | -135 | UFC Prop | | Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott | Fight to Start Round 3 | -170 | UFC Prop | +------------------------------------+--------------------------+---------------+--------------+ ``

Green Bay Packers -3 (+117) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While Green Bay is technically favored, getting -3 at +117 odds functions similarly to an underdog value play due to the positive return payout. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in EPA per play and 29th in offensive success rate. With rookie Jalon Daniels under center for Tampa Bay, Green Bay’s defense carries a substantial preparation advantage. Jordan Love faces a leaky Buccaneers secondary, making Packers -3 (+117) one of the top value plays on the board.

Houston Texans -3 (+125) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Houston presents another exceptional plus-money spread target at -3 (+125). Dallas enters off an exhausting international game in Brazil that resulted in a demoralizing loss. The Cowboys defense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every efficiency metric. With receiver Nico Collins returning to action for Houston, the desperate Texans are well-positioned to capitalize on Dallas's tired, struggling secondary.

How does PlusMoneymakers evaluate underdog value?

At PlusMoneymakers, finding underdog value relies on rigorous statistical analysis, tracking market movement, and evaluating underlying efficiency metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) rather than relying on standard win-loss records.

Over the past 30 days, PlusMoneymakers has generated a record of 162-134 (54.7% win rate), producing +46.4 net units of profit for followers.

Here is how that breakdown looks by sport according to official PlusMoneymakers data:

• NFL: 57 wins, 57 losses (+10.9 units)
• MLB: 90 wins, 68 losses (+30.4 units)
• NHL: 15 wins, 9 losses (+5.0 units)

By leveraging mispriced totals, rest advantages, and key point spread numbers, long-term profitability is sustained over high-volume slates.

Disclaimer: You must be 21 years of age or older to place sports wagers. Please bet responsibly and strictly within your financial means. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are the New England Patriots a strong underdog play today?

The Patriots +6.5 (+113) represent strong value on October 4, 2026, because their defense limits explosive plays and controls tempo. Despite Buffalo's top-ranked rushing EPA, New England has held two opponents under 100 rushing yards this season, making a 6.5-point line overly generous in a low-scoring environment.

What is the PlusMoneymakers 30-day betting record?

As tracked by PlusMoneymakers, the overall 30-day sports betting record stands at 162-134 (54.7% win rate), generating +46.4 units of overall profit across NFL, MLB, and NHL selections.

How do extra days of rest impact NFL underdog spreads?

Extra rest gives underdogs additional time to scheme against opponent tendencies and recover physically. Today, the New York Jets (+3.5) benefit from an extra day of rest following a Monday night appearance by the Chicago Bears, creating a classic situational letdown spot for the home favorite.