Best Underdog Bets Today: Value Picks for September 25, 2026

Finding underdog value on September 25, 2026, centers on identifying pitch-count restrictions in late-season MLB matchups and inflated point spreads in early-season NFL games. Top underdog opportunities today include the Tampa Bay Rays (+156) against the Philadelphia Phillies, the San Diego Padres (+153) visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Indianapolis Colts (+3, EVEN) hosting the Houston Texans. PlusMoneymakers highlights these plus-money spots where market pricing overvalues favorites based on public perception rather than situational context.

Key takeaways

• Top MLB Underdog Picks: Tampa Bay Rays (+156), San Diego Padres (+153), Los Angeles Angels (+122), Washington Nationals (+117), and Cleveland Guardians (+110).
• Top NFL Underdog Picks: Indianapolis Colts +3 (EVEN) and Miami Dolphins +10.5 (-102) / +11.5 (+100).
• High-Yield Props: Drake London Anytime TD (+203) and Tucker Kraft Receptions Over 5.5 (+130).
• 30-Day Tracking: PlusMoneymakers holds a 153-144 record (51.5% win rate) with +119 units in net profit across all sports over the last 30 days.

How does PlusMoneymakers evaluate underdog value on today's slate?

At PlusMoneymakers, where "Profit Looks Good on the Other Side," backing underdogs requires finding discrepancies between true situational probability and sportsbook odds. Over the last 30 days leading up to September 25, 2026, our tracked picks have generated +119 units of overall profit with a 153-144 record (51.5% win rate). That success is anchored by MLB picks yielding +103.8 units (70-66 record) and NFL selections generating +15.1 units (83-78 record).

When evaluating underdog value, we look for key structural edges:

1. Pitching and Innings Limits: Late-September baseball often features playoff-bound teams pulling starting pitchers early to preserve them for the postseason, exposing vulnerable bullpens.
2. Inflated Point Spreads: In the NFL, double-digit road favorites frequently overperform in market line moves, leaving valuable points on the table for home or divisional underdogs.
3. Player Prop Pricing: High-yield prop bets like Anytime Touchdown markets and reception totals offer inherent plus-money value when usage metrics lag behind market adjustments.

What are the best MLB underdog bets today?

Today's Major League Baseball slate presents five distinct underdog spots where underlying team trends contradict moneyline prices.

Tampa Bay Rays (+156) at Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies enter this matchup with starter Cristopher Sanchez, but with the postseason imminent, Philadelphia is expected to manage his workload closely. If Sanchez leaves early, the Phillies will rely heavily on a bullpen carrying a 4.35 ERA. At +156 odds, the Rays are positioned to capitalize on Philadelphia's late-inning pitching vulnerability in a game where the favorite has every reason to remain cautious.

San Diego Padres (+153) at Los Angeles Dodgers

Available at odds hovering around +153, the San Diego Padres present strong value based on contrasting pitching form and differential playoff scenarios. With the Dodgers managing player usage ahead of a week-long postseason rest period, San Diego’s pricing provides significant positive expected value.

Washington Nationals (+117) vs. New York Mets

The New York Mets have struggled significantly against left-handed pitching in recent weeks. Washington sends southpaw Andrew Alvarez to the mound, who enters in strong form. With the Mets' offense slumping against lefties, Washington at +117 home underdogs offers clear value.

Los Angeles Angels (+122) at Seattle Mariners

Seattle starter Bryce Miller has not completed six innings in a start since July 2nd. The Mariners have struggled against left-handed starters, creating an ideal setup for Angels lefty Reid Detmers to deliver a quality start. Los Angeles at +122 represents strong value against a Seattle squad struggling to generate early-game offense.

Cleveland Guardians (+110) at Boston Red Sox

Boston’s offense has stalled in late September, scoring more than one run just once in its last four games and failing to plate more than four runs in a game since September 12. While Red Sox starter Suarez has been solid, his pitch count may be curtailed ahead of the postseason. Cleveland at +110 takes advantage of Boston's cold bats.

Which NFL underdogs offer value in Week 3?

NFL Week 3 features key point-spread underdogs and high-value player prop opportunities on today's board.

Indianapolis Colts +3 (EVEN) vs. Houston Texans

Indianapolis proved its resilience in Week 2, taking the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime on the road before falling 33-30. Returning home as 3-point underdogs at even money (+100), the Colts present an attractive ATS play against a divisional rival.

Miami Dolphins +10.5 (-102) / +11.5 (+100) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

While Kansas City is the superior team, this represents their first daytime game of the season following back-to-back primetime games. Kansas City has historically had tighter margins on the road, and Miami getting double-digit points (+10.5 at -102 or +11.5 at +100) offers enough cushion to cover the spread.

High-Value Underdog Player Props

• Drake London Anytime TD Scorer (+203): In 14 games with Michael Penix under center, London has accumulated 91 receptions, 1,286 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. Facing a Green Bay secondary that allowed 12 catches, 120 yards, and a touchdown to New York's top receivers last week, +203 is an excellent price.
• Tucker Kraft Receptions Over 5.5 (+130): After playing 66% of snaps in Week 1 recovering from an ACL injury, Kraft played 98% of snaps in Week 2. Atlanta's defense has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends through two weeks, making Over 5.5 receptions at +130 (as well as conservative lines like Over 4.5 at -110 or Over 3.5 at -133) strong selections.

Summary of Today's Top Underdog Picks

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the PlusMoneymakers betting record over the last 30 days?

As reported by PlusMoneymakers on September 25, 2026, the tracked betting record over the past 30 days stands at 153-144 (51.5% win rate) with +119 net units won. MLB selections have generated +103.8 units (70-66 record), while NFL picks have delivered +15.1 units (83-78 record).

Why are MLB underdogs showing strong value late in September?

Late in the MLB regular season, playoff-bound favorites frequently restrict the pitch counts of their starting pitchers to preserve health for October. This forces teams to rely heavily on secondary bullpen pitchers, reducing the gap between favorites and underdogs and creating high value on plus-money underdogs.

How do point spreads affect NFL underdog valuation?

Double-digit underdogs like the Miami Dolphins (+10.5 / +11.5) offer value when public sentiment inflates the line past key thresholds. Even if the favorite wins the game straight up, backdoor cover opportunities and possession counts favor the underdog against wide point spreads.